What’s Impacting Homicide Clearance Rates? Answers from the Research©

(I've had to delay the 4 of the series for a bit, but here is a new posting)

Abstract: This article presents a discussion of why the unsolved homicide rate in the U.S. continues to be an essential discussion. Highlighted are what research has indicated as significant issues hindering homicide investigation and clearance efforts, and how the research has additionally provided as systemic and functional transformations essential to increasing the solve rate of homicide in the U.S.

Problems with Homicide Clearance Rates: Answers from the Research

The discussion of the reasons or causes for a reduction in the clearance rates for homicide in the United States has been an ongoing conversation and object of research since it was raised as an issue in the late 1990s. As the total crime rate and rate of homicides have dropped swiftly in the U.S., the rate of homicides solved by offender identification, arrest, or prosecution declined. Since that recognition, academic and criminal justice officials have researched, produced, and published a considerable number of well-constructed explorations into its causes. Their analyses, some of which is provided herein, presents reliable and valid findings into the problems and potential solutions to the “why” and “what” causes lie behind the decline of solve rates of homicide. Their research findings provide pragmatic resolutions for that ongoing challenge.

Why is this important?

A. Since 1980 the accumulated unsolved homicides in the US is over 210,000 and those are the offenses we know. Known serial killers are responsible, on average, for six (6) victims. Follow the math: If the average number of serial killers in the US each year is 65 and each is responsible for six a year, and as it has been 38 years since 1980, and as such, an additional 14,000 victims of serial murder may have occurred. (McClellan, 2018)

B. Every year 6,000+ homicides go unsolved. Six thousand unsolved homicides represent roughly 33% of the average annual homicide rate of 18,000 as recorded from 1996 to 2018. Moreover, in those cases where the offender has not been identified, and the victim was subjected to violent sexual assault, the specter of serial murder (lust murder and violent, sexualized homicide) haunts. (McClellan, 2018)

C. "Over 600,000 individuals go missing in the United States every year.

Fortunately, many missing children and adults are quickly found, alive and well. However, tens of thousands of individuals remain missing for more than one year – what many agencies consider “cold cases.” It is estimated that 4,400 unidentified bodies are recovered each year, with approximately 1,000 of those bodies remain unidentified ..." (https://www.namus.gov/)

D. Serial murder did not go away, did not slow down, and did not stop. What has happened since 2001 is that, as a nation, our attention and funding for law enforcement efforts regarding offenses committed in our communities has been diverted away from traditional crime and offenses to terrorism, terrorists, and increased immigration enforcement? Diversions of attention, policies, and funding have seen an increase in the unsolved homicide rate in the US since 2001. Serial murder, sexual homicide, sexualized homicide/murder, serial killing, and serial murderers did not vanish after 9-11, but they were taken off the front pages of the media. The murders occur, serial murder still occurs; however, they go unsolved like the majority of homicides in the US. They are getting away with murder, literally.

Social & Organizational Changes Associated with the Decline of Homicide Solvability

Over the past 30 years of data have linked the decrease in the solve rates of homicide in the U.S. to an increase in recidivist perpetrators and the presence of structural and organizational bias against marginalized groups that include, lower socio-economic groups, race, and ethnicity. Scholarly research and criminal justice fiscal effectiveness reports and literature have consistently identified five (5) factors strongly associated with the decline in homicide solvability rates in the U.S.

A change in the nature of homicide, e.g., stranger (recreational and/or lust murderers) vs. relationship murders since the 1950s (FBI UCR reports, 1995-2015; Litwin, 2004; Regoeczi & Miethe, 2003). In the United States after WWII momentous changes in nature, culture, and socio-economic circumstance changed. (Kennedy, D. M., Cohn, L., Piehl, M., & Bailey, T. A., 2004). The U.S. interstate highway system provided for the greater mobility of the population but also the movement of products throughout the states. The public education system, from grade schools to universities expanded sharply, suburbs appeared and evolved, new communities emerged and grew while others declined, jobs and pay shifted dramatically, women began to seek greater educational and occupational opportunities, and new industries emerged (Kennedy, D. M., Cohn, L., Piehl, M., & Bailey, T. A., 2004). Those changes and others shaped not only the nature of the country it shaped the nature of the social and cultural interactions of its people. We became less of a nation of familial ties, close-knit neighborhoods, and close friends, and more a nation of strangers (Fountain, 2006).

Female victims (infant, children, youths, women, older women) are the primary targets of homicide involving familial relationships and acquaintances (Bureau of Justice reports from 1994 to 2018. Problems exist regarding coherent or agreed upon definition of what constitutes stranger homicides, acquaintance homicides, or those otherwise indicating a misleading relationship between the victim and the offender (Loftin, C., Kindley, K., Norris, S. L. & Brian Wiersema, 1987). Moreover, because of the inconsistencies or lack of agreement, persons who might be otherwise categorized as acquaintances that could include work associates, delivery persons, maintenance workers, a-social contacts (postal worker, gas station attendant, grocery store employee, and social environment peers, etc.) can be erroneously characterized, depending upon the researcher or investigator as having been known or conversely unknown to the victim. Within the circumstances of one’s life there exists a wide array of contacts and links with other persons. Of those links there exists a range from familial to intimates, friendships (degrees of that), social and asocial acquaintances along with their associated interactions, brief fleeting interactions with previous unknown persons during which we may unintentionally expose ourselves to problematic circumstances.

Human beings are creatures of habit, and we like it that way. We are comforted and consoled in the safety and simplicities of our daily routines and habitual activities. In the acquiring of habits through successful practices and familiarities, we spare ourselves the constant inconvenience of reinventing, recreating or concentrating on many of our more mundane personal activities. That habit of inattention can be problematic. Routine activities not associated with criminal enterprise can bring the unsuspecting, the inattentive, and the unlucky into the routine zone and/or criminal zone of those with bad intention, and in particular, those who might otherwise be designated as acquaintances or strangers (Hewitt, A. N., Beauregard, E., & Davies, G., 2016).

The majority of victims of unsolved homicides belong to individuals who are members of socially marginalized groups, to include: prostitutes, homosexuals, substance abusers, economically disadvantaged, persons of color, and women (females). The reduction in police investigative effectiveness, also known as solve rate (Borg & Parker, 2001; Lee, 2005; Maguire, E. R., King, W. R., Johnson, D., Katz, C. M., 2010, and others) is particularly stark amongst those who are members of socially marginalized groups to include women (Egger, 1990; Chesney-Lind & Elason, 2006; McClellan, 2010, 2018; Lee, 2005; Riedel, 2008; Quinet, 2011; Regoeczi, Jarvis, & Mancik, 2018, (Baumer, E. P., Messner, S. F. & Felson, R. B., 2000). That combined with an increase in recidivist perpetrators, to include, serial killers/murderers (Egger, 1990; Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2018; Slifer, 2014; National Institute of Justice, 2000-2018 and others) present a particular challenge to how we think about homicide, serial homicide, and its probable correlation to the continuing reduction of the homicide solve rate in the United States.

Discussion

What we know about U.S. homicides, victimization, recidivism, and law enforcement investigative effectiveness is, for the most part, comprised of data-poor raw and aggregated sources through the FBI UCR, NIBRS, NCVS, and the CDC, with the CDC having greater data accuracy but lacking information/data points typically found in the UCR, NIBRS, and NCVS. Unfortunately, more recently, the FBI and BJS have removed data sources (raw & aggregate) from public sites reducing the amount of information available regarding crime, offenders, and victimization by crime/criminals in the United States. The data missing from the report is mostly about arrests and homicides. (Malone & Asher, 2017). In this manner, one of the ways and means available for the review and analysis of homicide, unsolved homicides, recidivism, and victimization has been eliminated or at the very least severely blunted for the general public and research efforts by criminal justice agencies, scholars, academicians, and researchers.

First, what we do know is that there has been, at minimally, a 30-year history of a reduction in homicide solvability in the United States. Secondly, during that same period of time, as highlighted by research we have come to understand the murders committed by strangers (unidentified assailants) has become the dominant type of homicide in the U.S. Thirdly, the research indicates that the stranger in unsolved homicides appears to target females predominately; persons of color, the economically disadvantaged, and persons belonging to socially marginalized groups. Therefore, in spite of our technological, scientific, and communication advances in criminal investigation there emerges to be yet unidentified or unrecognized structural and/or systemic features in our systems and organizations charged with investigating homicides that negatively and/or adversely impact the preferred outcomes of homicide offender identification/apprehension, success in solving homicides, and a reduction of victimization by those same said offenders.

Women as Victims of Homicide

The number of women who were victims of homicide in the United States grew by 21 percent in 2016 compared to the previous year, rising to the highest recorded level since 2007, according to a new report by Security.org (2018), a San Diego-based research group while the male homicide victim rate increased by 6.5 percent over the same time period.

1. Death by homicide among all genders increased by 8.8 percent from 2015 to 2016, according to the report, which was compiled using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Multiple Causes of Death database,

2. Eighty-two (82%) percent of homicide victims targeted by intimate partners were women

3. Men were also much more likely to be perpetrators; men were the aggressors in nine out of ten homicides,

4. All races saw a rise in homicide victim rates, but no increase was as dramatic as that seen for women across all races, according to the report.

i. The number of black homicide victims rose by eight (8) percent.

ii. The number of American Indian and Alaskan native victims rose by nine (9) percent, and the number of Caucasian victims increased by nine (9) percent.

iii. Among Asians, including those from India, the rate grew by 16 percent. (CBS

News; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-homicide-rate-female-victims-of-homicide-rose-by-21-percent-according-to-study-2018-12-6/)

Since 1980 the accumulated unsolved homicides in the US is over 210,000 and those are the offenses we know. Follow the math: If the average number of serial killers in the US each year is 65(FBI, 1999) and each is responsible for 6 a year, and as it has been 38 years since 1980, and as such, up to an additional 14,000 serial murders may have occurred during the period from 1980 to 2018 and would predominantly be women. Diversions of attention, policies, and funding may have considerably contributed to the increase of the unsolved homicide rate in the US particularly since 2001.

Briefly, based on the data of the most recent past from the FBI (2012-2017) it is likely that the homicide rate in the United States will continue to rise once again after the decade’s long decline as it has as reflected in the FBI UCR summary reports from 2012 through 2017. This increase in the number of homicides in the U.S. could very likely signal a continued and increasing volume in the number (percentage) of unsolved homicides. Given that possibility, it is not too much of a stretch to speculate that some of those unsolved homicides will continue to be the providence of serial murderers.

Law Enforcement Practices Contributing to Insolvability of Homicide Cases

Since 2001 a significant amount of published guidance and research have presented information associated with the methods, practices, and processes of improving the solve rate of homicides in the United States. Articles appearing in credible scholarly juried journals and those distributed through government publications such as those distributed by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, FBI Bulletin, and Police Executive Research Forum, and International Association of Chiefs of Police (from 2001 through 2015) serve as an example.

That practices and policies of law enforcement agencies can have a substantial impact on the clearance of homicide cases, and that clearance of homicides could be increased if law enforcement agencies improved investigation policies and practices. (Wellford & Cronin, 1999, p. 46; Smith, N. & Flanagan C. (2000). The qualitative and descriptive evidence of the research suggests that the likelihood of solving even the most challenging homicide cases, which by their nature include unknown offenders and suspected serial murders, can be influenced by law enforcement agencies at the individual (officer, supervisor, manager, administrator) and strategic level. (Carter, D. L. 2009; Carter, D. L., & Carter, J. G., 2016; Cronin, J. M., Murphy, G. R., Spahr, L. L., Toliver, J. I., & Weger, R. E., 2007; and Brookman, Maguire, & Maguire, 2018).

(F)indings demonstrate a perspective based on psychological, situational, and environmental impact on police work ( Jiao, 2007, p. 3). With that specific finding additionally supported by associated research (Chon, D.S., 2012; Carter & Carter, 2015; Wellford & Cronin, 1999; Graif, C., & Sampson, R. J., 2009) that highlights that an active community policing presence, capable and skilled investigative practices, collaboration with external agencies, and an innovative culture produces higher rates of homicide clearance in a jurisdiction. Law enforcement agency policies and practices that provide for improved operational process improvement and a higher guarantee of solving homicides have been available since the 1990s, by way of example,

The conduct and management of the processes involved in homicide investigation are essential to the overall and eventual success or failure of the investigation.

a. What happens at the crime scene by the initial responding officer(s) is essential,

b. Assignment of 3 or 4 detectives is optimal for clearing a case,

c. The degree of autonomy that detectives can exercise at the crime scenes,

d. The rapid adoption of incident-based crime reporting in its fuller sense,

e. The degree to which law enforcement can take fuller informed advantage of information technology. (Wellford and Cronin, 1999, p. 46-48)

More specifically, the research indicates that the individual and strategic level policies and practices require,

a. (C)ooperation and collaboration with community and its members

b. The investigator as an information manager.

c. The staff of the homicide unit must possess the necessary competencies, in combination with the emotional, psychological and analytical capacities in order to conduct an effective investigation.

d. (S)taffing, training and the development of contemporary expertise in the art and science of homicide investigation,

e. Confidence in, support of, and training for patrol officers to perform a wide range of tasks associated with the homicide investigation,

f. Reliance on the developments in the investigation (crime analysis and intelligence analysis) and an organizational ethos of working cooperatively with other agencies (Carter & Carter, 2015).

Discussion

A summary of police practices and practice as indicated in scholarly articles and official publications essentially support the same tenants as to who, what, how, when, and why to improve the solve rate of a homicide investigation in the US. There is much discussion in the vital research regarding the value of the communities in helping to solve homicides. It is important to note that the term community arises that it does so without indicating the fact that within the metropolitan, urban, suburban and rural environments referred to as communities that sub-sets of communities exist within the larger geopolitical setting which may require the independent establishment of communications and support. So, why is the solve rate still dropping? It is of value to examine the other part of this equation, and that is the victim(s) of unsolved homicides.

Devaluing Victims

Homicides are uncleared because they involve low‐status persons and those economically disadvantaged … suggesting that it is the characteristics of the homicide event that make clearance difficult. It seems that such factors as age, gender, and race/ethnicity play a role in whether the homicide is cleared by arrest. Characteristics of homicides that increase clearances include those which occur in private residences are domestic homicides and committed with weapons other than firearms. “Prostitute victims of serial homicide accounted for 32% of all U.S. serial murder cases from 1970 to 2009… (p)rostitute killers amass a greater average number of victims than do nonprostitute killers and when analyzed by decade, those who kill prostitutes primarily, kill for slightly longer periods (Quinet, 2011, p. 74). “(C)ases involving non-White victims or old victims were less likely to be solved. In cases where the victim was White versus non-White, the odds ratio that such cases would be cleared was 1.42. White victim cases had a 42 percent greater likelihood of being solved than non-White cases” (Zahn, M. & Sagi, P. C.,1987; Lee, 2005)

Sexual murders of victim ascribed as belonging to the less-dead* are related to the highest number of unsolved homicides;

*The less-dead is a term coined to refer to the majority of serial murder victims, who belong to marginalized groups of society. They lack prestige or power and generally come from lower socioeconomic groups. They are considered less-dead because before their deaths, they virtually “never were,” according to prevailing social attitudes. In other words, they are virtually ignored and devalued by their communities or members of their neighborhoods and generally not missed when they are gone. Examples are prostitutes, the homeless, vagrants, migrant farm workers, homosexuals, the poor, elderly women, and runaways. They are often vulnerable in locations they frequent, and easy to lure and dominate. (Egger, 2003)

Cases involving young children or teenagers are more likely to be solved than cases where the victim was aged twenty to sixty-four (20-64). Whereas, victims aged sixty-five and over (65+) were less likely to receive as much attention as younger victims. Moreover, cases of older homicide victims were 35% less likely to be solved than those involving young adults (aged 20-64). Also, just as telling, homicides involving persons aged sixty- five and older (65+) were solved 50% less frequently than those cases with children victims aged zero to twelve (0-12) (Lee, 2005)

I am unable to find any research associated with unsolved homicides and/or serial murder associated with or focused on those occurring in “Indian Country” in the United States. Reports published by FBI do not provide sufficient database information for the analysis of data. (Indian Country includes: Tribal affiliated persons living on reservations in the “lower 48”). Additionally, it should be noted that no research associated with unsolved homicides and/or serial murder associated with or focused on those occurring for victims designated as Native Alaskan or First Nations People nor for those of native ancestry in Hawaii. While several non-racial factors influence clearance outcomes, homicides occurring in areas with larger Black and Latino populations are less likely to be cleared. These findings highlight the importance of neighborhood racial composition beyond victim race effects and have implications for the community context of criminal justice (Roberts, A., & Lyons, C. J., 2011; Petersen, 2015).

The difficulty is that a substantial portion of this disparity is explained by social and demographic characteristics of the county in which homicides take place. “Most notably, counties with large concentrations of minority residents have lower clearance rates than do predominantly white counties” (Fagan & Geller, p. 14, 2018). Keel & Jarvis (2009) noted that some practices and policies of law enforcement agencies and their personnel, in fact, hinder the solvability of homicide cases when such practices in effect are the product of victim devaluation and/or police devaluation by the community stemming from the history of law enforcement interactions with that community.

Changes in clearance rates are linked to changes in the situational characteristics of murder incidents such as the percentage of cases involving strangers. However, it must be noted that within-city changes in immigration are associated with lower clearance rates, whereas drug market arrests are associated with higher clearance rates, but the clearance rates are not a consequence of changes in police personnel or police workload. (Jarvis & Regoeczi, 2009; Ousey & Lee 2010). Public opinion about immigration and immigration policy appear to be driven more by stereotype than by empirical fact (Martinez, R., Stowell, J. I. and Cancino, J. M., 2008; Ramiro, M. & Lee, M. T., 2000; and Martinez, R., Lee, M. T. and Nielsen, A. L.. 2004). Specifically, … “clearance rates were highest in cities marked by greater racial disparities in education, income, employment, and residence; greater residential stability; higher levels of educational attainment; higher expenditures for educational programs; and lower rates of homicide” (Borg & Parker, 2001, p.435). Moreover, (W)ith a few noticeable exceptions. Cases with Latino victims are less likely to be cleared by arrest than those with White victims, and cases are more likely to be cleared in communities with higher homeowner rates” (Litwin, 327, 2004; Roberts, A., & Lyons, C. J., 2011).

The Stranger Status of Homicides

There is little agreement in the research as to what constitutes a known and unknown offender, and as such, the likelihood of mischaracterization and categorization can occur at the level of law enforcement agencies and through data production, researching in databases that contain flawed definitions or categorizations. The issue of coherent agreement amongst reporting agencies and datasets has not been resolved since identified and elucidated by the Loftin et al., 1987.

Most stranger sexual killers were generalist offenders, and sexual homicide was part of a varied criminal repertoire, and non-sexual crimes predominate. This ‘antisocial orientation’ means future offending may not be limited to sexual violence. Criminal histories reflected the violent, sexual, marginality …while… offenders in the violent pathway were more criminally orientated. Therefore, the findings suggest the criminal histories of stranger sexual killers is an essential consideration for criminal justice professionals (Greenall & Wright, 2015) and equally important is the finding that,” (m)en with a criminal history of violent and/or rape offenses comprise a pool that would include 40% of prostitute killers 47% of serial prostitute killers”. (Brewer, Muth, Dudek, Roberts & Potterat, nd). As previously mentioned, there exist difficulties associated with vague definitions or imprecise delineations of what constitutes “relationship murders,” vs. “acquaintance murders” and the degrees thereof.

Discussion

The research indicates that the social status of a victim of homicide directly impacts the probability of the successful identification and solvability of that homicide. The factual categorization of that victim belonging to a socially marginalized group increases the likelihood that their homicidal death will remain unsolved. Unidentified murderers and serial offenders are likely to commit a range of violent and invasive crimes as part of their succession of offenses until or if they are apprehended. It is suggested that unidentified violent offenders would be likely to continue to prey upon persons situationally identified as a member of a socially marginalized group because as an offender they would receive the greater profit of success (serial offending) through those exploits than if they were to prey upon persons who were not members of marginalized groups. Nothing succeeds like success.

Concluding Remarks

The reasons and causes behind our thirty-year and ongoing decline in homicide clearance rates in the United States have been and need to continue as dialog and object of research. However, as academic and criminal justice officials have produced, and published research since the 1990s regarding this subject and their data, analysis, and conclusions have in fact provided us with considerable unassailable elements which their repeated fact-based results offer sound fixes can be applied, yet the problem remains, it would seem that two additional problems remain. I would suggest the following considerations.

First, the analyses of the problems and solutions provided in the research as advanced in the last thirty years have been roundly unheeded while the unsolved rate rises unabated, and as such, some unrecognized social-cultural-organizational inhibition and reluctance exist that prevent those changes from occurring. It is suggested that law enforcement agencies and their members do not exist outside the universe of the social and cultural environment in which they abide. As such, they may replicate and exhibit the negative and positive attributes, belief systems, and behaviors of the larger community, up to and including national community in their regard for and treatment of socially marginalized persons and groups (Prasad, P., D’Abate, C., & Prasad, A., p.,169-171, 2007; Weitzer, R., & Tuch, S. A. 2002; Weitzer, R. 2002). In that law enforcement agencies and their members tend to reflect in their cultural attitudes and their interactional processes the constructs of regard/interaction and worthiness of those persons described/defined as socially marginalized, it perhaps should come as no surprise that the rate of unsolved homicides continues to advance.

Secondly, that, as in all enterprises undertaken by an individual or organization, three things is absolute interconnected necessities: Time (priority), Money (funds), and People (tasks). As such, and in particular regards to law enforcement agencies and organizations the dedication of time, money, and personnel to the processes of investigation of criminal homicide comprise some critical elements in the success or failure of investigations. It might also be of value to examine how funding (or lack and reduction thereof) through the Federal largess has impacted the priorities of law enforcement in the United States. Additionally, for individual agencies, an examination of homicide unit effectiveness and efficiencies based on strategic practices analysis incorporating the actualities of time, money, and personnel may be an operational means of determining the difference between espoused and concrete undertakings.

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